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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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