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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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