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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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