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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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