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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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