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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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