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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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