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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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