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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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