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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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