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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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