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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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