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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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