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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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