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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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