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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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