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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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