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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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