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Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and traded to its lowest level since July. Meanwhile, NYMEX WTI settled below US$80/bbl for the first time since August. The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance. Prompt time spreads have weakened, suggesting a less tight physical market. And while there are clear demand concerns hovering over the market, supply dynamics have also played a role. For example, Russian seaborne crude oil exports have grown in recent months, which suggests that Russia is not sticking to its additional voluntary cut.
The recent price weakness is likely to lead to growing noise from OPEC+ and in particular from Saudi Arabia. Whilst Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would continue with their additional voluntary cuts through until the year-end, it is increasingly likely that they will extend this into the new year if this downward pressure continues. The Saudis would like to keep Brent above US$80/bbl, as this is roughly where their fiscal breakeven price is. Our oil balance shows that the market will be in surplus in 1Q24, so further cuts are something we could certainly see.
The weakness seen yesterday is likely to continue today. The API released inventory numbers overnight which were bearish. US crude oil inventories increased by 11.9MMbbls over the last week, while Cushing crude oil stocks grew by 1.1MMbbls. For refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 400Mbbls and distillate fuel oil stocks increased by 1MMbbls. The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be released later today.
In the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, there was little change to US crude oil production estimates. US crude oil output is expected to average 12.9MMbbls/d this year, up 1MMbbls/d YoY, while supply growth is expected to be much more modest next year, increasing by less than 250Mbbls/d to average 13.15MMbbls/d
Chinese October trade data released yesterday showed a fall in the trade surplus last month with weaker exports. However, imports were stronger, including crude oil. Crude oil imports averaged 11.58MMbbls/d in the month, up 3.7% MoM and 13.5% higher YoY. This leaves cumulative imports for the year at 11.41MMbbls/d, up 14.4% YoY. Stronger imports over the course of this year may reflect a recovery in domestic demand, while there will also be a fair amount of stock building.
Metals – China boosts gold reserves
China expanded its gold reserves for a twelfth straight month in October, according to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). The country raised its gold reserves by around 23 tonnes to a total of 2,215 tonnes last month. China has added about 266 tonnes of gold in the last twelve months through October. In general, central bank demand over the third quarter has been strong, because of the geopolitical environment, and with this uncertainty set to linger, we are likely to see central banks continuing to add to their holdings in the coming months.
China released its preliminary trade data for metals yesterday which shows total monthly imports for unwrought copper jumped 23.7% YoY (+4% MoM) to 500.2kt in October due to declining domestic inventories and firm demand. However, cumulative imports are still down 6.7% YoY to total 4.49mt over the first ten months of the year as stronger domestic production weighed on overseas purchases. Imports of copper concentrate rose 11.3% YoY to 2.31mt last month, while year-to-date imports rose 9.2% YoY to 22.6mt. In ferrous metals, iron ore imports rose 4.6% YoY to 99.4mt in October, however, were down almost 2% MoM as steel output declined following the seasonal slump in construction activity. Cumulative iron ore imports are up 6.5% YoY to 975.8mt.
On the export side, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments fell 8.1% YoY to 440.3kt last month, while year-to-date exports declined 17% YoY to 4.7mt over the first ten months of the year. Meanwhile, exports of steel products jumped 34.8% YoY to 74.7mt during Jan’23-Oct’23.
Agriculture – Chinese soybean imports surge
The latest trade numbers from China show that soybean imports rose 25% YoY to 5.2mt in October as domestic crushers increased purchases taking advantage of higher supplies from Brazil. Cumulative imports rose 14.6% YoY to 82.4mt over the first ten months of the year.
Weekly data from the European Commission show that soft wheat shipments for the season so far fell 25% YoY to 9.95mt as of 2 November. Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria were the top destinations for these shipments. The commission added that corn imports over the same period stood at 5.8mt, down 43% compared to a year ago. Weaker corn imports reflect a recovery in EU corn production this season.
Source: ING
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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