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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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