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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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