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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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