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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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