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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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