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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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