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Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
 This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
In July 2023, for example, coal hit its high point for the year so far, providing 19.1% of the country’s power; in August its market share was 19.0%. That performance stands in stark contrast to 2021, when coal’s market share in both July and August was more than 25%—roughly 6 percentage points higher. The low point this spring occurred in April and May, between the winter heating and summer cooling seasons, when coal’s market share slumped to just 13.8%—the first time it has ever fallen below 15%.
Despite hotter summer temperatures and increased power demand to run air conditioning in some parts of the country this summer, the use of coal has fallen. This is a result of lower prices for gas—coal’s primary fossil-fuel competitor—and a surge in utility-scale solar generation, which was up 20% in July from July 2022, and up 23% in August from a year ago.
The EIA’s current outlook suggests even more deterioration for coal power in the coming months. The energy agency not only sees coal’s November market share returning to the record-low market share in the spring, but also dropping even more in 2024, to as low as 10 to 13% in both the spring and fall.
The decision by plant owners to scale back their use of coal can be seen in at least two measures. First, power generation at coal plants has fallen every single month in 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, both at those owned by utilities and those owned by independent power producers (IPPs)—and by a lot. Through August, utility coal generation has dropped an average of 19.7%. At IPP coal plants, which are more sensitive to competitive pressures, generation has fallen even more—declining an average of 29.7%, a sign that the economics of selling coal-fired power have deteriorated significantly this year.
At the same time, coal stockpiles have surged, to almost 130 million tons in June, and remain high. That’s enough to run coal plants for 113 days, or almost four months, based on the average amount of coal used over the previous year. This measure, called “days of burn,” is more useful than simply looking at the size of the coal piles, since there are fewer coal plants than in the past, and the ones that are still operating are running less. In fact, the amount of coal used each day in the U.S. has fallen from about 2.8 million tons a day in 2008 to roughly 1.1 million tons a day this year—a 62% drop.
It can take a long time to bring such large stockpiles down to levels power producers are more comfortable with—historically around 50 to 60 days’ supply. It took 16 months to lower stockpiles from the May 2020 peak of 120 days of burn, and it took 34 months—almost three years— to lower stockpiles after a May 2016 peak of 105 days of burn. The speed of the drawdown will also be influenced by other factors like warm winter weather, the health of the U.S. economy, and gas prices.
To cut stockpiles, coal-plant owners are likely to turn to a straightforward solution: Buy less coal.
That, of course, would directly affect coal mining in the U.S., and the EIA is already warning that a significant production downturn is coming for the remainder of 2023 and throughout 2024. Overall, coal output could fall to 466 million tons in 2024, a 25 percent decline of 115 million tons from 2023 levels, the EIA says. If that figure holds, it would be the smallest annual U.S. coal production since 1962—but most of the years between 1936 and 1957 also had higher output.
Western producers, which include the nation’s largest mines in the Powder River Basin, could be hardest hit. The EIA is anticipating output in the region to slump 30% next year, or 73 million tons, to just 246 million tons. That would be the region’s lowest production in at least 40 years. Appalachian production doesn’t fare much better. There, the EIA expects production to fall almost 22%, or 29 million tons, to just 132 million tons. For comparison, when coal output in Appalachia peaked in 1990, almost four times as much of the fuel was mined.
After a sharp drop in coal demand in 2020 due to the pandemic, output from U.S. coal producers moderately rebounded and stabilized in 2021. Then, in 2022, coal prices soared after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broadly improved the financial health of U.S. coal companies—but provided only a modest improvement in the volume of coal produced, which declined again this year.
That temporary reprieve has ended. Coal companies are now staring at a substantial new downturn driven by an accelerating decline in domestic demand.
Source: IEEFA
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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