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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
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