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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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