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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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