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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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