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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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