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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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