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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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