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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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