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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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