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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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