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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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