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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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