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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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