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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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