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Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
 Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.3% lower on the day. This is despite OPEC releasing its monthly oil market report which suggests that the market will continue to tighten for the remainder of the year. OPEC made little in the way of changes to its global oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and for 2024. However, the group did revise higher its 2023 non-OPEC supply estimates by a little more than 100Mbbls/d on the back of upward revisions to Russian supply. OPEC numbers suggest that demand for OPEC oil over the third quarter will be 29.56MMbbls/d, which is well above the 27.31MMbbls/d that OPEC produced in July. The call on OPEC output grows to 30.74MMbbls/d in the fourth quarter, whilst over 2024, the group’s numbers suggest demand of 30.08MMbbls/d for OPEC oil.
Given the current production targets of OPEC+ until 2024, these numbers suggest global oil inventories will draw for the remainder of this year and over 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest monthly oil market report later today, where it will share its latest outlook for the market.
The significant cuts that we are currently seeing from OPEC+ continue to be supportive for medium sour crudes. The Brent-Dubai spread remains in negative territory and in fact has traded to a discount of more than US$1.20/bbl – lower than the levels seen during 2020, when OPEC+ made significant cuts. The weakness in Brent relative to Dubai should mean that Atlantic Basin crudes should be more appealing to Asian buyers. It is difficult to see any significant reversal in the spread before Saudi Arabia starts unwinding its additional voluntary supply cuts.
Having rallied significantly earlier in the week, following supply risks around Australian LNG, the European gas market gave back some of these gains yesterday, with TTF settling more than 6.6% lower on the day. The European gas market remains in a comfortable situation with storage more than 88% full and it is clear that the region will hit its target of 90% by 1 November, well ahead of schedule. However, the market will still need to keep a close eye on how labour negotiations progress in Australia. The potential for prolonged industrial action at a number of Australian LNG facilities could put a little over 10% of global LNG supply at risk, and given Europe’s growing reliance on LNG, this would (as already seen in recent days) have an impact on European gas prices as Asian buyers compete more aggressively for alternative supply.
Agriculture – UNICA reports higher cane crush
The latest fortnightly report from UNICA shows that sugar cane crushing in Centre-South Brazil rose to 53mt, up 7.8% year-on-year in the second half of July. The cumulative sugar cane crush for the season increased by 9.7% YoY to 311.3mt. Sugar production rose 11.3% YoY to 3.7mt in 2H July, with 50.7% of cane allocated to sugar production in the fortnight, higher than the 47.7% allocated in the same period last year. Cumulative sugar output so far this season stands at 19.2mt, up 19.8% YoY.
Meanwhile, in its quarterly report, the International Sugar Organization said that the global sugar market is expected to witness a deficit of 2.12mt in 2023/24 primarily due to lower output in major producing regions. Global production for the season is expected to reach 174.8mt, lower than the 177mt reported in 2022/23. Meanwhile, global sugar consumption is seen at 176.98mt, however, higher prices may prove to be a drag on consumption.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture revised domestic grain output to 56.4mt for the year, up from a previous expectation of 46mt. The above estimates include 28mt of corn (up 1.4% YoY) and about 21mt of wheat (in line with the last year’s harvest). The harvest estimates have increased despite lower sowing areas as favourable weather conditions have helped.
Source: ING
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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