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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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