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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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