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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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