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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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