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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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