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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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