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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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