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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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