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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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