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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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