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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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