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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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