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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
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