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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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