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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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