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Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourage higher consumption. More specifically, according to Refinitiv estimates, this summer, there may be a global surplus of about 4 billion cbm available for NW Europe, with the U.S. making up the majority of that excess. Currently, the global LNG market is pivoted by Europe’s LNG contracting activity ahead of the following winter, as well as competition for cargoes from Southeast Asian price-sensitive buyers.
Natural Gas Pricing
Pricing dynamics are critical because they reflect the interaction between fundamentals and macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. The market will need to be carefully balanced, and the rebound in China's demand and the demand of Asia's price-sensitive buyers will be key factors. As the price of LNG has decreased (last Friday the Northeast spot Asian price was assessed at $12.5/MMBtu, down 16.6% m-o-m), there is now greater spot demand in Asia, with price-sensitive consumers returning to the market, including Bangladesh, India, smaller Chinese LNG firms, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as Philippines and Vietnam that are also expected to enter the spot market this summer.
LNG Freight Rates
Since the beginning of the year, vessel rates have embarked on a downward trajectory. In the 2022 competitive market, freight rates in the Atlantic averaged close to $160,000/day as vessels competed to move cargoes to Europe. However, since the beginning of 2023, the freight market has been pivoted by a combination of lower natural gas prices and increased vessel supply, notably in the Atlantic Basin, thus exerting more pressure on rates. Spot rates currently stand above historical average Q1 levels, yet notably lower than the highs recorded in 4Q2022. On the other hand, T/C rates are currently seen as robust, reflecting future tightness in the market.
LNG Newbuilding Activity
Based on recent orders signed with South Korean shipyards, LNG newbuilding prices increased in the first quarter of 2023 amid high demand, limited shipbuilding capacity, and increasing inflation. More specifically, according to our preliminary data prices have climbed to $253 million during 1Q2023, 127% above the 5-year average newbuilding price (in a Korean yard). In terms of the number of orders, during 1Q2023, 17 vessels have been ordered versus 37 during 1Q2022 due to extremely tight shipbuilding capacity, especially in the top 3 Korean yards.
LNG S&P Activity
During 1Q2023, a total of 6 sales of second-hand LNG vessels have been reported, with 50% of the vessels sold being less than 10 years. In 1Q2023, the price for a 5-year-old LNG vessel stood at $245 million, 128% above the 5-year average, while the price for a 10-year-old LNG vessel hovered close to $155 million, 121% above the 5-year average.
Demolition Activity
The year kicked off a good start in terms of LNG carrier scrap sales, which in 2022 totaled just one vessel. So far in 1Q, a total of 3 vessels have been sold for scrapping at robust prices as owners scramble to replace their older tonnage ahead of new regulations on shipping emissions.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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